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The verdict
Investing beats solar by $18K
Upfront cost after credits $9K. Over 25 years you'd save $31K on electricity bills. If you'd invested that same cash at 7%, you'd have $49K. Investing wins by $18K.
The "invest alternative" compounds the upfront cash at your return for the full period. The solar side adds up each year's bill savings. In reality you'd probably reinvest solar's yearly savings too, so this comparison slightly favors the investing path. If solar still wins here, it's a strong signal.
Year-by-year
Production falls with degradation, electricity prices climb with inflation. Cumulative savings shown against the invest-the-money alternative.
| Year | Production | Self-used | Exported | Elec price | Savings | Cumulative | Invest alt. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9,300 kWh | 2,790 | 6,510 | $0.250 | $1K | $923 | $10K |
| 2 | 9,254 kWh | 2,776 | 6,477 | $0.260 | $1K | $2K | $10K |
| 3 | 9,207 kWh | 2,762 | 6,445 | $0.270 | $1K | $3K | $11K |
| 4 | 9,161 kWh | 2,748 | 6,413 | $0.281 | $1K | $4K | $12K |
| 5 | 9,115 kWh | 2,735 | 6,381 | $0.292 | $1K | $5K | $13K |
| 6 | 9,070 kWh | 2,721 | 6,349 | $0.304 | $1K | $6K | $14K |
| 7 | 9,024 kWh | 2,707 | 6,317 | $0.316 | $1K | $7K | $14K |
| 8 | 8,979 kWh | 2,694 | 6,286 | $0.329 | $1K | $8K | $15K |
| 9 | 8,934 kWh | 2,680 | 6,254 | $0.342 | $1K | $9K | $17K |
| 10 | 8,890 kWh | 2,667 | 6,223 | $0.356 | $1K | $10K | $18K |
| 11 | 8,845 kWh | 2,654 | 6,192 | $0.370 | $1K | $12K | $19K |
| 12 | 8,801 kWh | 2,640 | 6,161 | $0.385 | $1K | $11K | $20K |
| 13 | 8,757 kWh | 2,627 | 6,130 | $0.400 | $1K | $13K | $22K |
| 14 | 8,713 kWh | 2,614 | 6,099 | $0.416 | $1K | $14K | $23K |
| 15 | 8,670 kWh | 2,601 | 6,069 | $0.433 | $1K | $15K | $25K |
| 16 | 8,626 kWh | 2,588 | 6,038 | $0.450 | $1K | $17K | $27K |
| 17 | 8,583 kWh | 2,575 | 6,008 | $0.468 | $2K | $18K | $28K |
| 18 | 8,540 kWh | 2,562 | 5,978 | $0.487 | $2K | $19K | $30K |
| 19 | 8,498 kWh | 2,549 | 5,948 | $0.506 | $2K | $21K | $33K |
| 20 | 8,455 kWh | 2,537 | 5,919 | $0.527 | $2K | $22K | $35K |
| 21 | 8,413 kWh | 2,524 | 5,889 | $0.548 | $2K | $24K | $37K |
| 22 | 8,371 kWh | 2,511 | 5,860 | $0.570 | $2K | $26K | $40K |
| 23 | 8,329 kWh | 2,499 | 5,830 | $0.592 | $2K | $27K | $43K |
| 24 | 8,287 kWh | 2,486 | 5,801 | $0.616 | $2K | $29K | $46K |
| 25 | 8,246 kWh | 2,474 | 5,772 | $0.641 | $2K | $31K | $49K |